Pot odds decisions are one of poker’s most elementary, yet it is one of the most common mistakes made by players at all levels. I have always thought about how to justify a business case using calculated “pot odds. The easiest explanation of how to calculate pot odds is to compare the total number of unknown cards to how many “outs” you have, and then do some simple division.
Usually pot odds are calculated in a serious manner when 3 community cards are dealt to help your hand, called the “flop.” Two more rounds of betting occur, when the “turn” card is dealt and then the “river” card is dealt..
For example, if you are dealt a flush draw before the turn of a Texas Hold ‘em game, there are 47 unknown cards, (52 minus your 2 pocket cards and 3 on the board). Of those 47 cards, 9 are the same suit as your flush draw. So 38 cards will not help you, while 9 will give you the flush hand.
Your odds are : 38/9, or more simply, 4.1 odds against making your draw.
A good poker player will only call a bet in this case, if there is already 4x that amount already in the pot. So if you were playing a game of $5/$10 limit, then there would need to be at least $40 already in the pot to justify your calling that $10 bet to see the river. Get it?
Measuring pay for performance ROI is no different.
Last year we were responsible for getting an outside sales team over 300 meetings in 14 months, ultimately contributing to 4 million in sales and closed
deals with a cost of under 250k! 16:1 ROI.
What’s the added value of building a growing pipeline – especially with a pay for performance model? Would you bet on 1 closed deal from 10 sales appointments? Would calculated pot odds be that transparent?